In late 2015 I prepared a memorandum titled “Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response – the determinants of how much the Earth’s surface will warm as atmospheric CO2 increases”, as a briefing note to participants in a discussion meeting I attended. A slightly revised and updated version is available here.

A note showing how TCR estimates vary with analysis period, “Sensitivity of simple model TCR estimates to internal variability”, prepared for the same meeting, is available here.